Who Will Win in Iowa? Do the Issues Still Count?

Who will win in Iowa tomorrow? Both the Dems and Republicans face a balancing act between personality and issues. When voting for a Presidential candidate stands on issues is supposed to count; however, it has been long known that what kind of persona and/or image is projected by the candidate may count more. Both issues and image often affect each other or coincide. Trustworthiness, self confidence, and how the candidate is projected in terms of image is important too. Huckabee went a long way in his race for the Republican Primary by projecting an image of strong self confidence and ease with an audience. His image may have been tarnished recently though when he admitted he had not read an intelligence report about Iran which made and in his response to the Bhutto assassinaton* which made him look not too sharp on the international front; Instead McCain seems to have picked up the slack as he appears more engaged and experienced in the arena of foreign affairs. Romney has also benfited as he appears more sohisticated and knowledgeable about foreign affairs. Huckabee's image was suddenly tarnished because he did not pay enough attention to an important international issue.

Hillary Clinton has had an image problem since the Bill Clinton years; yet in my estimation she is probably more intelligent than any of the other candidates. That was true of Bill Clinton too. Her image problem is kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of dilemma. As a woman Clinton can not appear to be "too smart for her own good". Smarts without heart is something no candidate can be without, although Richard Nixon did very well without projecting much in the compassion category. Ronald Reagan did not represent a compassionate conservative either. Remember Ed Meese, Reagan's Attorney General, who said "reports of widespread hunger were merely anecdotal". Perhaps, have a heart factor has to do with the context of the times and it seemed that during Nixon and Reagan era there was a backlash against compassion for the downtrodden which has persisted to the present. Notice only those in the middle class are important; the poor are never mentioned, only this nebulous public called the middle class can be addressed. This in itself is a travesty given that every Den candidates has been doing outreach to labor unions and their consitutuents who identify as blue collar or working people not middle class. It was the Clintons who started this "never mention the poor strategy". This strategy may come back to haunt them both and may already be having its effect morally if not politically yet. I think only Edwards and Kucinich have really addressed the poor in a direct heads on way.

Hillary has softened her image. It is my understanding that her new image corresponds with who she really is, a self effacing person who does care very much about people and helping them. It is fairly clear when it comes to politics Clinton is a realist and is unwilling to make only the promises about helping people she thinks she can keep. Edwards appears or says he is ready to fight for the "little guy" and to stand up to corporate interests. Obama seems to project a nice guy image of someone who is not out for blood and who can bring everyone together.

Image and Issues are a balancing act that may or may not coalesce by the end of the caucuses in Iowa tomorrow. There is also the game of strategy that the caucuses require when the candidates who do not have strong showings have to decide whether to send their votes to another stronger candidate. At that point, image and issue may continue to play a part in the outcome. For instance, supporters of Huckabee may look for the candidate who they see as the next most sincere and staunch in their religious take on society. I have no idea who that might be though as none of the other Republicans seem to fit that bill except maybe Fred Thompson who is a weak contender. On the Dem side, Obama seems to be getting a lot of support from those who just do not trust Hillary because of her historical stand on Iraq and I am sure "the woman factor" fear that she has to play the hawk to counter an image that might appear too soft, what a contradiction. This thinking exists in my opinion, in spite of the fact that Hillary seems the most qualified by experience and just the way she has shown she can deal with pressures demonstrates she can lead. Edwards is a benefactor of those who do not see Obama as anti establishment enough.

In the end, the winner will also reflect the highest number of persons they can get out to participate in the Iowa Caucuses. Image and Issues only go so far. It may boil down to how many old people, women, and younger voters of Iiowa and in what proportions these folks go to the caucuses and which campaign does the best getting their people to caucus. Obama campaign people seem very organized. But I am sure the the Hillary camps is also. I think the younger folks would tend to be more for Obama and Edwards, and the older folk might lean more toward Clinton, Biden, and the old familiar faces. People expressed concern older folks might not go out in a blizzard or deep snow; however the younger are often more fickle than passionate about their politics so it might be a wash or in my opinion, the middle aged and older will make the effort which could help Hillary. I am sure all three top contenders have all this figured out and have an idea who they need to help get to the polls. Now not much left to do for us in the rest of the country but to sit and wait for the results unless you happen to know someone in Iowa you can yet persuade for your candidate whoever that is. Or are you waiting for a winner to emerge. Some say this will not happen that quickly. Perhaps, a solid image and issues have not really come together yet for most of the candidates. Merging image with issues is essential to becoming a truly successful candidate.

* After Bhutto's assassination Huckabee talked about immigration and creating more barriers to keep immigrants out. It was quite simply a weird response and the media was puzzled by Huckabee's lack of being on target when it came to an important international incident.